Thursday, April 19, 2018

The E-Commerce Competition Lie

Lately, major and minor chain stores are going bankrupt at an ever-increasing rate. The usual explanation is that e-commerce is wiping them out - they simply couldn't handle the competition. But actually, competition from e-commerce is not the primary cause of these bankruptcies. Toy-R-Us, for example, was still profitable. The primary cause of the retail apocalypse is hedge funds.

They (Bain Capital, in the case of Toys-R-Us) borrow to acquire control of a retail chain, often in a hostile takeover. Once in control, they have the chain take out massive loans; in the case of Toys-R-Us, a loan for five billion dollars. Some of those funds are used to repay the very loan that the hedge fund took out to acquire them in the first place. The rest of those funds are taken by the hedge fund itself, along with anything else of value that they can loot from the company. I suspect that that usually includes as much of employees retirement funds as they can get.

Burdened with impossible debt, the chain struggles to avoid bankruptcy - but the debt is simply too high. Eventually the chain capitulates and declares bankruptcy. In the meantime, the hedge fund(s) move on to their next victims. Rinse, lather, and repeat.

We’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg so far. Hedge funds have been doing this a LOT lately, and we’ve seen less than 5% of that debt come due thus far. In the next five years, there will be an enormous increase in hedge-fund-caused bankruptcies. America may well be left with more empty chain stores than open ones.

It’s worth noting that chains which are still in private hands are generally doing well. Costco, for example, has seen its profits skyrocket. Competition from e-commerce did kill off brick and mortar chains in some sectors, such as book shops and video stores. But in general, the destructive effect of e-commerce is more a myth than reality: a myth that conveniently ignores the fact that these retail deaths are deliberate murders, rather than failures to compete.

Which is exactly how the hedge funds and the oligarchs want it, of course. They'd much rather that Americans see the destruction of their economy as the result of business failure, rather than what it is: the inevitable result of crony capitalism run amok and cannibalizing everything it can get its hands on. With, of course, the eager cooperation of the political establishment - itself probably the most profitable buy-out that the hedge funds ever made, if not actually the most profitable investment in history.

Of course, it can only be considered profitable if we ignore the cost of losing the Earth as a human habitation. But that's not a cost that is figured on balance sheets - yet.