2020 Presidential Election Outcomes

Let's consider possibilities.

Right now the likeliest outcome appears to be a clear win for Biden, if the polls and media are right. In that case, Trump can either claim fraud and take legal action, or accept defeat.

My money would be on legal action, dragged out as long as possible. This would be accompanied by protest marches and some rioting by Trump supporters, with little or no police action taken against the rioters (unless some of the rioters happen to be black, or there are some black bystanders in the general area of a protest).

The DNC would attempt to work up some counterprotests. I'm not sure how effective those would be. Those of us who oppose both candidates would be rendered effectively invisible in the media, of course. No doubt we'd see a huge amount of identity-politics-shaming from DNC spokespeople and media personalities.

At this point I only see two possible outcomes. There's no way this doesn't get taken to the Supreme Court. Odds are that the court would dodge this decision if they could, but they may not be able to.

I suspect this is one of those cases where we would see naked politics on the court, like Bush v Gore. Which would mean that Trump would get it, particularly if Justice Handmaiden gets on the court in time. If that happens, we will see some liberals in the street in pussy hats, chanting cringy slogans that were focus tested by the DNC. But the whole thing will probably end up fizzling out with a second term for Trump.

Alternatively the court might give it to Biden, in which case we may see some shootings from Trump supporters. I don't see that turning into a full-blown civil war, though. People tend to overestimate the number of truly passionate supporters on either side. Most people are just trying to survive.

I guess a third possibility would be some attempt at splitting the baby by the court. They might order a nationwide recount, or even a new election. This would be entirely new territory, legally. The Constitution has nothing to say about this. So it's pretty much a crapshoot.

Obviously the above applies to a narrow win by either candidate. Both the Democrats and the Republicans are ready to claim fraud and fight this in court, with adjuncts in the street. Once again those of us who oppose both candidates and actually want to do something about the impending climate apocalypse will be rendered invisible in the media.

If anything, the least likely scenarios would seem to be a clear win by one candidate and a concession by the other. 

My best guess is that we won't see anything near a full-blown civil war, but the credibility of the US system of government and elections will be even more seriously damaged, probably permanently. This is likely to lead to an existential crisis within the next four to eight years. What comes out of that crisis is beyond the scope of this post. But since the climate point of no return will be taking place in 7 years, it is likely to play a major role in that crisis.

What do you think?